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Date:01/01/2009 URL: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2009/01/01/stories/2009010150120800.htm Cuban revolution: 50 years and beyond | |
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The time has come for the US to normalise its relations with
Cuba. The regime will not then be able to use US hostility to
silence dissent and will have to deliver on the expectations of its
people. Bhaskar Balakrishnan | ||
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Cuba’s revolution, ushered in by Fidel Castro in January 1959, will
mark 50 years in 2009. It has survived determined US efforts to
overthrow it, including the draconian US blockade imposed on it
since 1963. Cuba and its giant superpower neighbour, the US,
separated by the narrow Florida straits have been bitter enemies
over the past 50 years. But now, it appears the time has come for a
change in this relationship. Cuba, discovered by Columbus in 1492, was for over 400 years a Spanish colony. It got its independence in 1902, following a late stage US intervention in its struggle against Spain. However, through the infamous Platt amendment, the US secured the right to intervene in Cuban affairs, and also the right to use Guantanamo. Cuba’s experience with the US-supervised and controlled democracy over the next 50 years, punctuated by coups and violent episodes, was not particularly happy for the majority of its citizens. Whatever democracy remained was set aside by the dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1952. Batista’s dictatorship led to a revolt, which ultimately culminated in ‘the 26th of July Movement’ led by Fidel Castro; this resulted in the defeat of Batista’s forces in late 1958, following which the dictator fled Cuba. The Cuban revolution thus was an outgrowth of a struggle for justice, against an outside power seeking to retain control over the country. Fidel Castro, on taking over in January 1959, had an immensely challenging task ahead of him. Fifty years of US-supervised democracy had made Cuba the playground of the rich and the mafia, with very little attention given to the poor, and especially the non-white population. Soviet Union relations The steps taken by Fidel Castro’s revolutionary government led to increasing US hostility, and the failed attempt at regime change through the Bay of Pigs invasion of April 1961 pushed Cuba into a strategic alliance with the USSR. It resulted in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and in the ensuing superpower standoff, there was a tacit understanding that the US would not invade Cuba, in exchange for withdrawal of the nuclear armed missiles. In response to Castro’s taking Cuba formally into a one-party system, led by the communist party, the US imposed an economic blockade against Cuba in 1963. Paradoxically, Cuba’s defiance of the US and resilience in the face of efforts at regime change made Castro a hero in the third world, and especially in Latin America, for long the playground of US interests under the so-called Monroe Doctrine. In those days, democracy in Latin America was only permitted if it did not go against US interests. With economic and diplomatic support from the USSR, Castro was able to invest heavily in education, health care, and provide many subsidised facilities to the Cubans, securing their loyalty and support, especially of the poor and non-white sections. Cuba was also able to extend itself into the third world, especially Africa, with which it always had a special affinity, owing to its African heritage. In Angola, Cuba played a critical role in defeating the South African-UNITA forces supported by the US and China. The collapse of the USSR in 1991 presented Cuba with a severe challenge. Cuba’s economic situation deteriorated sharply, and its citizens faced hardships and a shortage of essentials. Cuba’s regime reluctantly opened up to foreign business, invested in tourism development, and allowed limited small business activity. By 2000, the situation had stabilised. Economic relations developed with Canada, the EU and Japan, while Cuba had normal relations with most of Latin America. China emerged as a major supporter of Cuba in this period, overcoming the setback caused to its relations over Angola. Social development Under the revolution, Cuba has scored impressive successes in social development. Although a poor country in GDP terms, it has achieved a literacy rate of 99.8 per cent (from 60 per cent in 1959), an infant mortality rate of only 5.3 (from 39 in 1959), and has the lowest incidence of HIV in the Western hemisphere. It has 46,000 students enrolled (of which 21,000 are foreign students) in 21 medical colleges, for a population of only 11 million. It won 24 medals (including two gold) in the 2008 Olympics. Cuban disaster management system has faced the annual onslaught of hurricanes with hardly any deaths. Cuba has also set up an impressive network of scientific institutions, especially in biotechnology. It has also scored some success in finding oil and gas near its north coast. It has built up a good tourism infrastructure receiving some 2.3 million tourists with 11 international airports. Much of the credit for Cuba’s social development should go to Castro’s unique upfront leadership style, vision, determination, and strong commitment to education and health for all Cubans. Those who had thought that the revolution would collapse after Fidel Castro relinquished charge as President have been proved wrong. The regime has implemented its post-Fidel transition in a carefully planned manner. Raul Castro’s leadership style is low-key and different from Fidel, but he is focusing on serious economic reforms, similar to those carried out in China. The country faces problems in managing its economy efficiently, and of better exploiting its agricultural potential to produce more food. The over-dependence on sugar cane, a hangover from the USSR era, has been corrected to a large extent. At the same time, the Cuban revolution now faces the challenge of accommodating diversity of opinions and dissent. The one party system can theoretically accommodate differences, through enhanced intra-party democracy, transparency, inclusiveness, and responsiveness to citizen feedback. This has, in fact, been attempted by Raul Castro over the past few months, and the results have been promising. Political liberalisation Political liberalisation will depend on the threat perceptions of the regime. The forthcoming Communist Party Congress in late 2009, being held after a five-year delay, would indicate Cuba’s future path. A return to a Stalinist stifling of constructive dissent, and absence of credible measures to check abuse of power would be a retrograde step. Across the Florida straits, the US administration remains locked into a dysfunctional and irrational anti-Cuba posture, despite the desire of the ordinary people on both sides to have normal relations. This position, driven by some anti-Castro Cuban exiles and the critical electoral impact of voters in Florida, has deterred many US presidents from making innovations in Cuba policy. But now the support for the US blockade is draining away, even among Cuban exiles. Other states of the US, such as the food exporting states, and the South West see economic benefits in normalising relations with Cuba. The US oil industry would like to take part in exploration activities. After all, if the US can engage normally with communist party led-states such as China and Vietnam, why not with Cuba, its neighbour? Recent indications are that President-elect Mr Barack Obama would have greater leeway and support for changing policies towards Cuba. The Cuban leadership has already indicated it would be ready for a dialogue with the Obama administration. These are hopeful signs of a détente. There are broader implications for the US policy in Latin America. If one promotes democracy, it implies that elections might produce outcomes adverse for US perceived interests in the short-term. The challenge is to avoid attempts at regime change or control, and work towards a genuine partnership. The US would be well advised to engage in a dialogue with Cuba without preconditions. Normalising relations with Cuba will be a win-win situation for Cuba and the US and indeed for Latin America. The Cuban regime will not then be able to use US’ hostility to support it or to silence dissent. It will have to deliver on the expectations of its increasingly educated and demanding people. This then will be the true challenge ahead for the Cuban revolution – to deliver good governance and accommodate diversity of views. |
